Disappointing inflation figures sent shockwaves through financial markets, triggering a steep decline on Wall Street as the opening bell rang. The world’s economic engine sputtered with no relief in sight from rising prices, prompting investors to seek shelter. In this climate of caution, the US Dollar emerged as the go-to safe haven.
The Gold Market Technical Overview (XAUUSD)
The market started strong on Monday with prices soaring, but by Tuesday, the trend reversed, and the market declined, with the $2,360 price level emerging as a strong resistance. Most of the four-hour sessions for the gold market indicated indecision, with the price stabilizing around $2,346. This continued until the 10th hour, when bulls gained strength, propelling the market upward again. However, the $2,360 resistance level held firm, leading to a massive selloff that caused the market to fall to the key support level of $2,320.
Gold Stalls in Recovery Mode, Waits on Inflation Signal
The gleam on Gold prices has dulled on Friday, hovering around $2,340 after a brief climb from a three-week low. This pause comes as investors digest the implications of weaker US growth data.
The slowdown, marked by a downward revision in first-quarter GDP, hints at contained inflation. This, in turn, could lead the Federal Reserve to ease off the brakes on interest rates. As an asset that doesn’t offer interest itself, gold benefits from lower interest rate environments.
Thursday saw a rebound in gold prices after the revised GDP figures emerged. This triggered a shift in expectations, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note dipping back from a four-week high. Talk of the Fed potentially raising rates further seems to be fading.
Comments from key Fed officials like Bostic, Goolsbee, and Williams all pointed towards a wait-and-see approach, expressing confidence in the current policy’s ability to manage inflation.
However, Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April could be a game-changer. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and any surprises could spark volatility in the gold market. While analysts anticipate it to be largely predictable, even minor deviations could cause ripples.
The odds of a rate cut before September remain slim, and the possibility of a September cut sits precariously at 50/50 according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors have their eyes glued to this key data point, waiting for a clearer signal on the future trajectory of inflation and interest rates, which will ultimately determine gold’s next move.
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