On Friday, EUR/USD managed to claw back from recent setbacks, reclaiming familiar technical levels. However, the overall gains were constrained as German Consumer Confidence slipped to nearly a one-year low, reflective of the tepid economic conditions prevailing in Europe. While the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation figures exhibited a more significant easing than anticipated, the prospects of rate cuts dimmed with December’s robust Personal Spending and an unexpected rise in Pending Home Sales. The resilient state of the US domestic economy has contributed to the waning optimism for prompt and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Resilient EUR/USD Trims Losses in the Face of a Determined Greenback
EUR/USD dipped to multi-week lows on Friday, driven by a decline in German Gfk Consumer Confidence to an 11-month low of -29.7. Simultaneously, the US Dollar rebounded as YoY Core PCE Price Index figures for December eased to 2.9%, slightly below the forecasted 3.0%.
Despite the inflation slowdown, the US witnessed positive trends in Personal Spending, which rose 0.7% in December, surpassing the 0.4% forecast. Pending Home Sales also surged by 8.3%, defying expectations for a 1.5% rebound.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers next Tuesday, with anticipation for a -0.1% print in Euro area Q4 GDP. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady rates in January, but market sentiments are leaning towards the possibility of the first rate cut in May, following a shift in rate bets post-PCE print. The upcoming week is poised for crucial economic indicators and the high-impact rate call from the US Federal Reserve scheduled for Wednesday.
Analyzing the Technical Landscape of Market
Since Monday, the EUR/USD market has consistently struggled to surpass the $1.09000 price level. Despite several attempts, each daily session throughout the week has resulted in rejection. Similarly, the market tested the $1.08219 support price level, concluding the week with a close near the support level on Friday, which is at $1.08489. The technical outlook for the market remains uncertain, as indicated by the indecision in Friday’s candlestick pattern and the Relative Strength Index hovering around the 43 level for a significant portion of the week. For next week, the market would have to start its journey from around the support level, which is $1.08489.
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