The release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is most likely influencing the steady climb of the EUR/USD above the $1.1100 price level.. As a result, the pair has gained momentum and achieved its highest daily close since March 2022. Concurrently, the USD weakened, causing the dollar index (DXY) to dip below 100.50, marking a one-year low. On Thursday, there are upcoming reports on US inflation data and the release of ECB minutes.
After the start of the American session, the EUR/USD pair kept increasing, reaching 1.1125, the highest level since March 2022. The US Dollar is still under pressure after the release of US inflation statistics, so the pair is still close to its all-time high.
The US Economy Performs Below Expectation
In June, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, and the annual rate slowed to 3%, the lowest since March 2021 and below the expected 3.1%. Consequently, the US Dollar dropped and US yields declined.
The US Dollar Index continues its fifth consecutive day of decline, reaching a one-year low of 100.60. The US 10-year bond yield is currently at 3.87%, down 2.50% from Monday’s peak of 4.09% and at a one-week low.
Despite expectations for a rate increase at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 25–26, the likelihood of another rate hike before the end of the year has significantly decreased following the release of inflation data.
Technical View on the EUR/USD Market
The recent candlestick on the daily chart for EUR/USD is a highly significant bullish candlestick, indicating minimal signs of bearish activity. Furthermore, the bullish price has successfully breached the $1.11000 price level, reaching the current price of $1.11328.
When analyzing the Bollinger Bands indicator, we observe that the price action is extending beyond the bands. However, it is noteworthy that the lower band is diverging from the upper band and the 20-day moving average.
This divergence in the Bollinger Bands suggests a potential shift in the market dynamics. It may indicate a period of increased volatility and the possibility of a reversal or correction shortly. Given the bullish candlestick, the breakout above the $1.11000 level, and the
divergence in the Bollinger Bands, it appears that the current momentum favors further upward movement in the EUR/USD pair.
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