Fed Tightening in Focus: Key PCE Data and Speeches This Week

Weekly Analysis of Major FX Pairs (September 5th–11th, 2024)

The US dollar has regained its bearishness ahead of the anticipated rate cut. This sentiment appears to have been driven by poorer-than-expected employment data and the disappointing performance of the Dollar Index. Consequently, this has affected most major FX pairs, some positively while others have been impacted negatively.

Weekly Analysis of Major FX Pairs (September 5th–11th, 2024)
EUR/USD: Bullish

EUR/USD has regained its upward momentum. This began after price action consolidated slightly above the red set of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) lines. The ongoing session has signaled that price action is gaining more momentum as it progresses through all the GMMA lines.

This major pair now trades above the 1.1100 threshold. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) lines are also rising from the oversold region, indicating that price action may continue to rise towards the 1.1200 price level.

Weekly Analysis of Major FX Pairs (September 5th–11th, 2024)

GBP/USD: Bullish

GBP/USD shows characteristics similar to the EUR/USD pair. However, its price action has regained bullish momentum, although it did not fall significantly below the green set of GMMA lines. Price action in this market has resurfaced above all the GMMA lines, yet the Stochastic RSI indicator lines maintain their downward trajectory.

However, the later part of the indicator lines seems to curve slightly, hinting that upside forces may be regaining momentum. Given the prevailing trend, market price action appears poised to resurface above the 1.3200 price level.

Weekly Analysis of Major FX Pairs (September 5th–11th, 2024)

USD/CHF: Bearish

USD/CHF continues to make lower lows since the US dollar weakened due to unfavorable fundamentals. This major FX pair has retraced to lower price levels for three consecutive sessions, pushing price action below all the GMMA lines.

As a result, the Stochastic RSI indicator lines have also crossed downward after rising past the 50 mark. Technically, trading indicators suggest that price action may touch down at the 0.8400 level and potentially move beyond it.

USD/CAD: Bullish

Despite a notable rejection in the USD/CAD daily market, prices remain above the key psychological level of 1.3500. Currently, the price is positioned below all the GMMA lines. The most recent price candle also closed below these GMMA lines, with its size indicating cautious trader sentiment toward bullish speculation.

Despite this, the Stochastic RSI continues to point upward, showing no signs of the previous session’s downward rejection. Moving forward, traders will likely turn to market fundamentals for new signals as they aim for the 1.3600 level.

 

AUD/USD: Bullish

AUD/USD has also capitalized on the dollar’s weakness, rebounding from the 0.6700 support level. The ongoing session marks the second consecutive session in which this major FX pair has shown moderate upside gains.

However, price action remains below three of the GMMA lines. The Stochastic RSI lines have not yet picked up the trend and continue to fall into the oversold region. Nevertheless, price movement on the chart, combined with fundamentals, suggests that prices may head toward the 0.6800 mark.

EUR/JPY: Bearish

EUR/JPY maintains a moderate correlation with the US dollar, resulting in sharp downward price action. The ongoing session is positioned below all the GMMA curves, and we can observe significant contraction as indicated by the appearance of upper and lower shadows.

Additionally, the Stochastic RSI indicator lines are falling sharply into the oversold region. The signals from trading indicators suggest that market price action may be primed for a revisit of the 159.38 price mark.

Weekly Analysis of Major FX Pairs (September 5th–11th, 2024)

USD/JPY: Bearish

Price action in the USD/JPY market has broken through a multi-month support level. This major FX pair has retraced sharply downward for two sessions, breaking through the 144.93 threshold. The ongoing session remains bearish but appears to be contracting, indicating that market forces are acting equally on both sides.

This activity is occurring below all the GMMA lines. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI lines are also moving downward, and the gap between the leading and lagging lines suggests that bears are in control, with the market potentially approaching the 142.00 mark.

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