The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower on Friday, with the AUD/USD pair closing near the 0.6575 level. Despite the slight retreat, the Aussie remained relatively firm, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ongoing hawkish rhetoric. Market participants were also digesting Chinese inflation data released during the European trading session, which influenced broader market sentiment and, consequently, the Australian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar softened against its US counterpart on Friday, with the AUD/USD pair dipping to 0.6575, marking a 0.30% decline. However, the currency’s downside appeared limited amid the Reserve Bank of Australia’s persistent hawkish tone and stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data. Market expectations for Australian monetary policy remain tilted towards a cautious approach, with traders pricing in only a 25 basis point rate cut for 2024, reflecting the intricate interplay of domestic economic challenges and elevated inflationary pressures.
Fundamental Outlook for the Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar concluded the week on a relatively firm footing, underpinned by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While the central bank opted to maintain interest rates at their current level, Governor Michele Bullock’s commentary underscored a persistent vigilance against inflationary pressures. This resolute tone suggests that rate cuts are not imminent and could even be raised if necessary, bolstering the AUD’s appeal as a yield-sensitive currency.
Moreover, a resilient Chinese economy offered additional support. Despite concerns about a potential slowdown, July’s inflation data surprised to the upside, indicating a degree of economic vitality. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s health is crucial for the AUD’s performance. This positive development has helped to offset potential downside risks and provided a solid foundation for the Australian Dollar.
Technical Outlook on the Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar showed strong performance against the US Dollar on Tuesday, breaking out of the indecision around the $0.65 price level. By Thursday, the market made an impressive surge toward the $0.66 level. However, it began to reverse direction at this point, closing at $0.657 on Friday. Prior to this rally, the market had been trending downward since mid-July until it found support at the $0.65 level. As a result, the current rally has not surpassed or recovered the ground lost during the last bearish trend. Consequently, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the overall trend remains downward. Given the recent lower high observed on the chart, the market may be poised for further bearish movement.
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